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South Africa: Aids Sees Plunge in Growth Rate Population Print E-mail
Written by Leila Samodien - Cape Argus   
Wednesday, 18 July 2007
The population growth rate in South Africa has taken a drastic plunge in recent years, with HIV/Aids-related deaths playing a lead role in the decline, say experts.
 
Statistics South Africa released its latest findings, which show that the population growth in the country has slowed down to 6.4% since 2001.

This is a significant drop from the 10.4% growth rate between 1996 and 2001.
 
The mid-year population estimates further show that 11% of the recently estimated 47.9 million people in South Africa are infected with the HIV virus.

According to a 2006 report on the demographic impact of HIV/Aids on the country, the population growth rate is directly affected by HIV/Aids.
 
The report - jointly compiled by experts from the Centre for Actuarial Research, The Burden of Disease Research Unit and the Actuarial Society of South Africa - says there were up to 346 000 Aids-related deaths nationally in 2005.
 
"... although the population growth rate is falling, it is not expected to become negative for the country as a whole, but may do so, slightly, for one or two provinces," the report says.
 
The populations of Gauteng and Free State are expected to shrink dramatically by 2015.
 
This was expected partly because Gauteng was enduring falling fertility and rising mortality rates and Free State was feeling the impact of migration.
 
"However, whether or not these provinces will actually experience negative or stagnant population growth is very much dependent on the patterns of future migration, and this is something about which there is little certainty," the report says.
 
The impact of HIV/Aids on the population growth rate was also backed up by Medical Research Council statistician Ria Laubscher and senior researcher Leigh Johnson and demographer Tom Moultrie at the Centre for Actuarial Research.
 
Laubscher said HIV/Aids would "definitely have an influence" on the population growth rate because the death rate in the country was increasing as a result of the pandemic.
 
Moultrie said fertility in the country had been falling for years and that there were a number of recent deaths because of Aids, which saw the "narrowing of the gap in terms of the slowing down of the population growth rate".
 
Johnson said while there were probably other factors at play, "Aids mortality has had some impact on population growth".
 
According to Statistics SA's estimates, 51% of the country's population was female and the average life expectancy for both sexes was 50 years.
 
Also, closer to home, only 10.1% of the population was found to be living in the Western Cape, which is half the number of people living in Gauteng.
 
People in the Western Cape can also expect to live a few years longer than South Africans in other provinces as their average life expectancy is 60 years and over.
Last Updated ( Tuesday, 17 July 2007 )